NCD Financing Impact Case Study
Reframing health systems research as an operational and economic decision case
Project D · Business Impact Case Study
Financing chronic care as an operations problem.
This page reframes the Kisumu NCD financing work in language that a strategy, operations, or investment audience can absorb quickly: bottlenecks, risk, intervention options, and expected service gains.
Challenge
Seven public facilities were expected to maintain hypertension and diabetes care, but they operated with:
- no dedicated NCD budget line
- delayed procurement and reimbursement cycles
- limited autonomy to redirect funds when chronic medicine demand changed
Data approach
The case combined facility records, financial process review, and qualitative evidence from staff and managers to identify where service continuity breaks down.
Scenario modeling
| Lever | Modeled effect |
|---|---|
| Faster procurement approval | Fewer medicine interruption days |
| Protected chronic care budget line | More predictable medicine availability |
| Local facility spending discretion | Quicker response to small stock gaps |
Operational recommendation
The most realistic first move is not a full financing overhaul. It is a tighter operating model:
- protect a minimum NCD budget line
- monitor reimbursement lag as a service KPI
- authorize low-cost local purchases when stockout risk passes a threshold
Files in this project
- scenario_model.R for the scenario calculations
- data/ncd_financing_scenarios.csv with example assumptions
- README.md summarizing the case-study framing