---
title: "Agriculture & Agribusiness Analytics"
subtitle: "Data-driven investment analysis for farming ventures in Homabay County, Kenya"
page-layout: full
---

## 🌾 Overview

Applying data science and economic analysis to agricultural investment decisions in Homabay County, Kenya. These projects combine statistical analysis, financial modeling, and local agricultural knowledge to support evidence-based farming ventures.

### Personal Context

I'm planning commercial farming operations in **Rachuonyo North (Homa Hills)**, **Suba**, and **Ndhiwa** sub-counties in Homabay County - my place of birth. These analyses inform real investment decisions for livestock and crop farming.

**Current Operations**: 7 goats + 15 sheep | **Target**: Commercial scale by 2026

---

## 📊 Featured Projects

### 🐐 [Goat Farming Investment Analysis](goat-farming-homabay/)

**Evidence-based planning for Rachuonyo North & Suba farms**

Comprehensive business analysis covering:
- Breed selection for Homabay climate
- Financial projections (7 goats → 50-100 by 2026)
- Predator-proof infrastructure (addressing hyena threat)
- Break-even analysis (Year 3)
- Seasonal management calendar
- Location comparison (Rachuonyo North vs Suba)

**Real-World Challenge**: Lost 4 sheep to hyenas in one day - analysis addresses this critical risk

**Status**: ✅ Complete

[View Full Analysis →](goat-farming-homabay/)

---

### 🌽 Crop Farming Viability - Ndhiwa

**Which crops for maximum ROI in Ndhiwa sub-county?**

Coming soon:
- Climate suitability analysis
- Rainfall reliability assessment
- Market price trends & forecasting
- Input cost-benefit analysis
- Crop calendar optimization

**Status**: Active scoping

---

### 🐔 Poultry Farming Economics

**Layers vs broilers economic comparison for Homabay**

Coming soon:
- Breed performance analysis
- Feed cost optimization
- Disease risk by season
- Market price seasonality
- Break-even calculations

**Status**: Planned

---

### 🌦️ Climate-Resilient Agriculture Dashboard

**Adaptation strategies for changing climate patterns**

Coming soon:
- Historical climate trends (1990-2024)
- Climate projections (2025-2050)
- Drought risk assessment
- Water harvesting ROI
- Adaptive farming strategies

**Status**: Planned

---

### 🌍 [Food Security Early Warning (EA)](food-security-early-warning.qmd)

**Price shocks + rainfall anomalies for early action (Kenya + EA)**

- Offline demo with included market + rainfall data (Nairobi, Kisumu, Eldoret)
- Pure R pipeline (dplyr/zoo) with easy swap to live WFP/CHIRPS feeds
- Leaflet hotspot maps, alert tables, and price trend chart
- Weekly refresh-ready; outputs tailored for NGOs, govts, and donors

**Status**: ✅ Ready to demo

---

## 🎯 Why Data-Driven Agriculture?

### The Challenge

Traditional farming in Western Kenya faces:
- ❌ Erratic rainfall patterns
- ❌ Predator threats (hyenas, jackals)
- ❌ Market price volatility
- ❌ Limited access to financing
- ❌ Climate change impacts

### The Solution

Evidence-based decision making through:
- ✅ Climate data analysis
- ✅ Financial modeling & projections
- ✅ Risk assessment & mitigation
- ✅ Market trend forecasting
- ✅ Comparative analysis of options

---

## 📍 Focus Areas

### Rachuonyo North (Homa Hills)
- **Current**: Primary goat farming location
- **Challenge**: High predator risk (hyenas)
- **Advantage**: Home area, family support, market access

### Suba
- **Plan**: Secondary goat farming location
- **Advantage**: Better rainfall, lower predator risk
- **Challenge**: More remote location

### Ndhiwa
- **Plan**: Crop farming operations
- **Focus**: Cash crops & food security crops
- **Analysis**: Climate suitability & market viability

---

## 💡 Skills Demonstrated

These agriculture projects showcase:

**1. Financial Analysis**
- ROI calculations
- Break-even analysis
- Sensitivity analysis
- Risk assessment

**2. Data Visualization**
- Interactive Plotly charts
- Financial projections
- Seasonal calendars
- Comparative analysis

**3. Research & Analysis**
- Literature review
- Data synthesis
- Evidence-based recommendations
- Policy awareness

**4. Domain Knowledge**
- Local agricultural context
- Climate patterns
- Market dynamics
- Cultural practices

---

## 🔗 Connections to Health Economics

Agriculture and health are deeply connected:

- **Food Security** → Nutrition → Health outcomes
- **Economic Stability** → Healthcare access
- **Climate Adaptation** → Disease patterns
- **Livelihood Security** → Mental health

My background in health economics and epidemiology informs these agricultural analyses, particularly around:
- Household-level economic decision-making
- Risk mitigation strategies
- Resource allocation optimization
- Evidence-based policy recommendations

---

## 📚 Data Sources

- **KALRO** (Kenya Agricultural & Livestock Research Organization)
- **KNBS** (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics) - Agricultural census
- **FAO** - Crop suitability data
- **Kenya Met Department** - Climate data
- **Homabay County CIDP** - County development plans
- **Local market surveys** - Price data
- **Personal experience** - Current farming operations

---

[← Back to Projects](../index.qmd) | [View TidyTuesday Analytics →](../../tidy-tuesday/index.qmd)
